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Forecast for Wallonia

Election posters and... brocante.

By Tijs De Geyndt

After several fraud and corruption scandals the once almighty PS is still licking its wounds. Yet at an estimated 24,7% (-7,3%) they still remain the biggest party of Wallonia. The ‘green wave’ seems to hit here as well, they become the second biggest party growing with 13,8% to 22%. The MR are estimated to plunge to 18,3% (-7,5%). CDH loses about 5% resulting in 9,5% other parties like Défi are likely to not even make the election threshold. PTB would grow 9,3% in comparison to 2014 to 14,8%

A progressive majority within the next government seems very likely. Interesting question is if PTB would be invited for negotiations to join the government. Most Flemish parties have called for a so called ‘cordon sanitaire’ against the Marxist-communist inspired party. PS president Elio Di Rupo dreams of a coalition of PS-Ecolo-Défi. He doesn’t like the idea of having PTB on board which is their direct competitor for votes. But given this results Défi will not be able to help them reach a majority. The thought that the door would be opened for PTB instead of MR sends fear from the ‘Meuse’ all the way to Antwerp’s City Hall. This scenario would be catastrophic for NV-A’s plans to continue a right government on the federal level.

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